Challenging Radical Uncertainty in Science, Society and the Environment

The EPSRC-funded CRUISSE Network aims to bring academics from disciplines in mathematical, physical, psychological, social and other sciences together to better understand and help practitioners who are making difficult decisions.

We will be looking to identify and categorise real-world challenges into three types:

(1) Challenges that are tractable with traditional statistical and decision theoretic methods.

(2) Challenges that require a broader approach, where models are developed and informative but not necessarily comprehensive, and mature probabilities are not available.

(3) Challenges that are characterised by radical uncertainty and lack of confidence in model fidelity, requiring thoughtful case-by-case reflection, reframing of the question and innovative approaches to “solutions” or strategies.

We aim to develop useful guidelines for cases 2 and 3, including a guide to good practice, which will broaden the awareness of alternative approaches, exploring the way problems are being set up and framed in the light of the type of uncertainties identified.

Practitioners who are aware of the kinds of problems and solutions in each case, and where the problems of interest to them lie, will be a step closer to resilient decision-making, informed by seeing approaches to other hazards facing real-world decision making.

We will be funding short pilot projects in partnership with decision-making communities.


Register your interest now to be kept up to date with our news, events, and funding calls.

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Our website is currently under construction. Please contact us at cruisse@ucl.ac.uk for any related queries.



The CRUISSE Network is co-funded by three UK research councils: EPSRC, NERC, and ESRC. Core Network members are based at UCL and LSE.

We are delighted to be working with the START Network and our sister network Models2Decisions.


The following have participated in CRUISSE network meetings contributing to our approach and conclusions:

Kris de Meyer                                Jim Berger


Gerd Gigerenzer                             David Good


Julie Gore                                                       Nigel Harvey


Brian MacGillivray                               Diana Mangalagiu


Mark Fenton O’Creevey                         Robert Rosner


Miles Elsden                                        Erica Thompson


Lenny Smith                                       Catherine Fieschi


Andy Stirling                                      David Stark


Mervyn King                                    Gus O’Donnell


Patrick Destremau                        David Tuckett


Paul Cairney