Challenging Radical Uncertainty in Science, Society and the Environment
The EPSRC-funded CRUISSE Network aims to bring academics from disciplines in mathematical, physical, psychological, social and other sciences together to better understand and help practitioners who are making difficult decisions.
We will be looking to identify and categorise real-world challenges into three types:
(1) Challenges that are tractable with traditional statistical and decision theoretic methods.
(2) Challenges that require a broader approach, where models are developed and informative but not necessarily comprehensive, and mature probabilities are not available.
(3) Challenges that are characterised by radical uncertainty and lack of confidence in model fidelity, requiring thoughtful case-by-case reflection, reframing of the question and innovative approaches to “solutions” or strategies.
We aim to develop useful guidelines for cases 2 and 3, including a guide to good practice, which will broaden the awareness of alternative approaches, exploring the way problems are being set up and framed in the light of the type of uncertainties identified.
Practitioners who are aware of the kinds of problems and solutions in each case, and where the problems of interest to them lie, will be a step closer to resilient decision-making, informed by seeing approaches to other hazards facing real-world decision making.
We will be funding short pilot projects in partnership with decision-making communities.
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