Conference Programme

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty:
How Can Academics Help Real-World Decision-Making?

CRUISSE Network Conference 21-22 September 2017
UCL Darwin Lecture Theatre (B40), Gower Street, London WC1E 6XA

The CRUISSE Network (Challenging Radical Uncertainty in Science, Society and the Environment) aims to help decision-makers in industry, government and civil society get together with academics from a wide range of disciplines in mathematical, physical, psychological, social and other sciences to provide better understanding and support to practitioners when they have to make difficult decisions stemming from uncertainty.

Programme

Thursday 21 September

09:00 Registration and coffee

09:25  Welcome

09:30-13:00 Making decisions in practice
An interactive session in three parts, led by Dr Erica Thompson (LSE) and Dr Kris de Meyer (UCL)

This challenge-led session will “set the scene,” providing some context, definitions, and examples for the discussions to follow.  What do we each understand by notions of risk and uncertainty?  What kinds of real-world constraints around decision-making might we face?

11:00-11:30  Coffee break

12:00-13:00 Experience-based insights into uncertain decision-making for public policy
With contributions from

Prof Simon French (University of Warwick): Decision analysis and the political process

Prof Paul Cairney (University of Stirling): Evidence and framing in public policy

13:00-14:00  Networking Lunch

14:00-16:00  Is Box 3 Empty? Do academics disagree on how decision-making is best supported?
Plenary discussion led by Prof Leonard Smith (LSE)

Leonard Smith will lead a discussion on differing views from academics as to how support for real world challenges should be approached. What types of information can be helpfully supplied to meet the types of challenges discussed in the morning? Can everything be reduced to a decision relevant probability? Or are there some questions for which no probabilities can be provided?  How then can academic insights contribute to decision making?

16:00  Call for Pilot Projects: introduction and aims

16:30  End of Day One discussions

16:45-19:45  Conference Reception
The Marlborough Arms WC1E 7LY
This is approximately a two minute walk from the lecture theatre:

 

Friday 22 September

09:15-12:30 Supporting the practice and activity of decision-makers
Chaired by Dr David Good (Psychology, Cambridge)
09:30 Prof Peter Challenor (Mathematics, Exeter): The Models 2 Decisions Network
10:00 Dr David Good (Psychology, Cambridge): CRUISSE
10:30 Coffee break
11:00 Prof David Tuckett (Brain Sciences, UCL): Uncertainty and How We Cope in Practice
11:30 Prof Mark Fenton-O’Creevy (Business School, Open University): The Stories We Tell Ourselves: Narrative, Emotion and Fantasy in Strategic Decision Making
12:00 General discussion concluding with
Dr Julie Gore (Psychology, Bath): Reflections on the two networks

 

12:30-14:00  Networking Lunch

14:00-16:00 Two parallel paper session panels
(Darwin Building: Rooms B05 and B15)
Abstracts available here.

16:00-17:00  Concluding Discussion; Ways Forward
Chaired by David Tuckett and Leonard Smith

17:00  Conference closes

 

Enjoyed this event?  Our next annual conference will be 7-8 November 2018, and there are plenty of other opportunities to get involved before then with pilot projects and other scoping meetings.  Keep an eye on the website, or join our mailing list to be kept in the loop when new opportunities are announced.